Ten years ago, the world was heading for around 4C of heating by 2100; today, that projection is closer to 2.6C.

Which is not great, but a good deal better, and in no small part due to the Paris Agreement that was endorsed by nearly 200 countries those ten years ago.

Clean energy has surged, coal in most countries is burning out, net-zero a common goal and global regulatory and legal processes in place.

Drawing on original analysis alongside third-party data, a ECIU report assesses progress across clean energy deployment and investment, emissions trends, EV uptake, and the integration of climate policy and standards into the global economy. Together, these indicators show that the Paris Agreement has had a transformative global impact.

2015, BP’s Energy Outlook predicted that the global non-fossil share of power generation would rise from 32 per cent that year to 38 per cent by the end of its forecast period in 2035. By 2024 non-fossil generation already accounted for over 41 per cent of the global power supply, over ten years early.

The world installed 553GW of solar in 2024 alone, overshooting 2015 International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts by more than 1,500 per cent. Total global solar capacity is over four times what was predicted in 2015 and doubling every three years.

Clean energy investment will reach $2.2tr in 2025, double the spend on fossil fuels, with solar PV investment exceeding all other power generation combined.

And, most importantly, global CO2 emissions have plateaued: since 2015, annual carbon emissions (including from land use change) are up just 1.2 per cent, compared with 18.4 per cent in the decade before Paris.

COP30, however, remains an enigma, with many of these gains under attack and global agreement looking further away than it did. Hopefully the progress will find a way.

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