New analysis from the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) shows that an expanding share of the world economy is cutting emissions while continuing to grow, meaning decoupling is beginning to occur at scale.

Overall, 92 per cent of global GDP and 89 per cent of global emissions are in economies that have decoupled, either relatively or absolutely, up from 77 per cent for both in the decade before the Paris Agreement.

The number of countries achieving absolute decoupling rose from 32 pre-Paris to 43 post-Paris, while those achieving relative decoupling rose from 35 to 40. Absolute decoupling is widespread across advanced economies, even when adjusting for emissions embodied in imports.

Commenting on the findings, John Lang, one of the report authors and Net Zero Tracker lead at ECIU, said: “We’re sometimes told the world can’t cut emissions without cutting growth. The opposite is happening. Of course, global totals matter most and carbon emissions continue to rise, though at a far slower rate than ten years ago. Under the hood, the structural shift is unmistakable.”

The report shows widespread decoupling across Europe and North America, and in major South American and Southern African economies. The US and the EU fall into absolute decoupling, while India and China show relative decoupling, with China’s emissions growing far more slowly than GDP over the 2015–2023 period.

Some of the largest proportional emissions reductions were recorded in Western Europe, including Norway, Switzerland and the UK. These are among a cohort of over 20 global economies which have consistently demonstrated absolute decoupling over the past two decades.

The report also finds that many emerging economies have made significant turnarounds, moving from emissions rising faster than GDP to absolute decoupling, with emissions now falling as their economies expand. This includes Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Jordan and Mozambique.

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