An IEA market report sees global coal demand to slowly decline through the end of this decade as competition intensifies with other power sources, such as renewables, natural gas and nuclear.

The report, Coal 2025, finds that global coal demand is on course to rise by 0.5 per cent in 2025, reaching a record 8.85 billion tonnes. In several major markets, consumption patterns diverged from their recent trends. In India, an early and intense monsoon season resulted in a decline in annual coal use for only the third time in five decades. In the US, higher natural gas prices and policy measures that slowed coal plant retirements lifted coal consumption, which had been on a downward trajectory for the previous 15 years. After two years of double-digit declines, coal demand in the EU shrank only modestly. At the same time, in China, coal use remained broadly unchanged from its 2024 level.

By 2030, however, global coal demand is expected to be lower, returning to the same level as in 2023, driven by shifts in the power sector, which accounts for two-thirds of total coal consumption today.

With renewable capacity surging, nuclear expanding steadily, and a huge wave of liquefied natural gas coming to market, coal-fired power generation is forecast to decline from 2026 onward. Coal demand from industry is expected to remain more resilient.

In China, which currently accounts for more than half of global coal use, demand is expected to fall slightly by the end of the decade. The country continues to deploy renewable energy capacity at a rapid pace, with the government looking to reach a peak in domestic coal consumption by 2030.

“Despite uncharacteristic trends in several key coal markets in 2025, our forecast for the coming years has not changed substantially from a year ago: we expect global coal demand to plateau before edging down by 2030,” said IEA director of energy markets and security Keisuke Sadamori. “That said, there are many uncertainties affecting the outlook for coal, most notably in China, where developments; from economic growth and policy choices to energy market dynamics and weather; will continue to have an outsize influence on the global picture. More broadly, trends in electricity demand growth and the integration of renewables worldwide could impact coal’s trajectory.”

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