The Met Office outlook for the global average temperature in 2026 suggests an extension of the run of years with a value above 1.4C, compared to pre-industrial levels.

The forecast next year is 1.46C, this is lower than the value of 1.55C recorded in 2024, the current warmest year on record, but suggests that it is likely to be one of the four warmest years for global average temperature.

Professor Adam Scaife, who leads the team behind the Met Office’s global forecast for 2026, said: “The last three years are all likely to have exceeded 1.4C and we expect 2026 will be the fourth year in succession to do this. Prior to this surge, the previous global temperature had not exceeded 1.3C.”

The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5C risks unleashing ever more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather and decreases adaptation options. Avoiding every fraction of a degree of warming matters to minimise these risks.

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