A new analysis from the Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) finds that UK car industry is on course to hit Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEV) Mandate’s 28 per cent target for 2025.

Analysis of vehicle CO2 data from the Department for Transport and vehicle sales data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), together with projections for vehicle sales in December based on previous years’ sales trends, reveals that the car industry as a whole is on course to meet its targets under the ZEV mandate for the second year running. Earlier this year the Government confirmed the 2024 target had been achieved.

In designing the ZEV Mandate, the previous Government included a so-called ‘flexibility’, that means the target can be hit not just from the sale of EVs, but also from the sale of large numbers of lower emission petrol and diesel cars, with the overall effect being to reduce tailpipe emissions.

While the headline EV sales target for the year is 28 per cent, our analysis has found that the flexibilities in the ZEV mandate lower the percentage of EVs that the industry as a whole actually needs to sell to 20.4 per cent. The rest of the target can be made up through the sale of lower emission petrol and diesel cars. So far this year (January to November) more than one in five new cars sold in the UK has been an EV (22.7 per cent), meaning the industry is on track to exceed the overall ZEV mandate target for the second year running.

Commenting on the analysis Colin Walker, head of transport at the ECIU, said: “Despite claims that sales targets would not be hit, it seems clear that in 2025, just as last year, the industry is on track. British drivers are increasingly choosing to switch to electric, so much so that, of the world’s largest car markets, the UK is now second only to China in the proportion of drivers buying new EVs.”

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