The EU is set to install less new solar in 2025 than it did last year – the first annual drop in a decade.

SolarPower Europe's new mid-year market analysis for EU solar forecasts a growth of 1.4 per cent lower annual growth for 2025. This would mark the first year of negative market growth since 2015.

Despite this forecasted negative growth, years of solar boom mean that the EU will meet the RePower EU 2025 solar target of 400GW and by the end of the year the bloc could host 402GW with the EU is set to install 64.2GW more capacity.

The downturn is particularly linked to a declining residential rooftop segment, as the energy crisis and related support schemes wane in key markets like Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Hungary, Italy, and the Netherlands.

The wavering corporate power purchasing agreement (cPPA) market also contributes to the reduced solar market expectations, with 2025 bringing a 41 per cent drop between deals signed between Q1 and Q2.

In order to meet the 2030 target, and deliver the continent’s decarbonisation and competitiveness goals, Europe must install nearly 70GW per year through the rest of the decade. The current trend suggests that it will fall short of its goals, hosting 723GW of solar PV by 2030, compared to the required 750GW.

Dries Acke, deputy CEO of SolarPower Europe said, “The number may seem small, but the symbolism is big. Market decline, right when solar is meant to be accelerating, deserves EU leaders’ attention. Europe needs competitive electricity, energy security, and climate solutions. Solar delivers on all of those needs. Now policymakers must deliver the electrification, flexibility and energy storage frameworks that will drive solar success through the rest of the decade.”

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