The UK has reached “peak petrol” according to an Auto Trader analysis as the number of petrol cars on the road will half over the next decade.

Despite headwinds, the forecasts show the number of petrol cars in the UK is set to decline from the current 18.7m to just 11.1m by 2034 as drivers move towards EVs and the share of the new car market taken by EVs is set to rise from around18 per cent in 2024 to 23 per cent next year. This remains some way below the 28 per cent target for sales under the Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandate, which increases from 22 per cent this year.

Over the same period, the number of EVs on Britain’s roads is set to rise from 1.25m to 13.7m as the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel powered vehicles by 2030 draws closer, while the overall stock of diesel engine vehicles will reduce from 10m to 4.3m.

The decline of petrol-powered cars comes amid increased affordability in the used EV market and price parity between electric and conventionally powered vehicles.

Auto Trader also predicts that the new car market will remain just under the 2 million car level next year, rising 2 per cent to 1.98 million as manufacturers and retailers face a challenging combination of stricter regulatory targets, uncertain brand loyalty, and tougher competition between brands as new entrants.

Ian Plummer, Auto Trader’s commercial director noted: “Peak petrol is a genuine landmark for the UK. We expect to see a seismic shift in British motoring over the next decade as the number of petrol cars falls by nearly half and EVs take a much bigger share.”

A quarter of new car sales in November were electric, which will boost confidence and help bridge the gap between the Mandate and sales, according to New AutoMotive’s latest Electric Car Count. This s the highest market share for EVs since December 2022.

The figures mean that the country’s EV sales have held their market share of more than 20 per cent for the fourth consecutive month, a new record. The figures also represent a 51 per cent increase in EV sales when compared to November last year.

The performance of the UK’s EV market means that the car industry’s ZEV Mandate credit surplus has almost doubled, and so no manufacturer will need to pay fines or make buyout payments to the Government this year, a situation that seemed unlikely only a month ago.

When it comes to manufacturers, domestic firms are leading the way. Mini, who operate out of Oxford, saw their electric models equate to 37 per cent of their total new car sales, with the BMW Group selling more EVs than Tesla last month, Jaguar (with 36 per cent of total car sales being electric) and Vauxhall (36 per cent) although some manufacturing is outside the UK. , Peugeot (29 per cent), Renault (27 per cent), MG (27 per cent) and Skoda (23 per cent). Even lagging firms like VW and Ford exceeded their targets, with their EV market share totally 21 per cent and 19 per cent respectively.

Ben Nelmes, CEO of New AutoMotive said: "November’s strong sales are accompanied by billions of investment in charging infrastructure and electric vehicle manufacturing. As global electric car sales wax and wane, the UK’s car market is heading in one direction, and fast. Ministers must not pull the rug under this progress as they revisit UK policy on EVs.”

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