Hope not heat

Ahead of COP30 it is worth noting that many great things have been achieved in reducing the impacts of manmade climate change.

The COPs have slid, event by event, into being something of a gloom fest, and indeed there is still much to be worried about. But it is worth taking stock of the positive and seeing how much has been achieved in managing our planet. There is the ever-present danger, borne out by recent research, that too much emphasis in the negative can just make people disinterested or mistrustful.

As the finer words start to meet the nitty-gritty of actual actions, regulations, negotiations and financial horse-trading (not to mention blame, misinformation and political point-scoring) it is important to show that there is a route forward, that Paris can be met and that the end is not necessarily nigh.

As reported earlier, in ten years, the world has gone from heading for a 4C rise in temperatures by 2100 to a projection is between 1.9C to 2.6C. That’s a halving, and whilst still well over the limit, still an achievement.

The ozone layer is healing, although that might come at a price. Nearly every country (140 in total) has a net-zero plan, coal is dying, clean energy has surged, deployment of renewables has exceeded expectations. The world installed 553GW of solar in 2024, overshooting 2015 International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts by more than 1,500 per cent and clean energy investment will reach $2.2tr in 2025, double the spend on fossil fuels, with solar PV investment exceeding all other power generation combined.

The race is hardly won, but there might just be reasons to cling to hope rather than despondency and cheer on the good news.



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