A S&P Global report, using probabilistic analysis, estimates a 90 per cent likelihood that, by 2040, the average global temperature will exceed the Paris Agreement's goal of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. And there is a 50 per cent likelihood of it exceeding 2.3 C.

Furthermore, if sufficient action is not taken, there’s a 50 per cent chance that economic costs from global warming would accumulate to up tp33 per cent by 2040, and in a more extreme case, the average temperature could be 2.8 C higher than preindustrial levels by 2040.

All of which makes gloomy reading, but worse S&P note that climate adaptation and resilience needs remain largely unmet due, in part, to uncertainties and data gaps associated with climate risk modelling, long and costly implementation of adaptation and resilience investments, and greater societal benefits than private benefits, all of which could put such investments on the back burner.

The report believes that the world is shifting to a less ambitious pace of emissions reductions too, with geoeconomic security concerns taking precedence over long-term sustainability goals; while powering the growth of new technologies like AI, and doing so affordably, remains a priority for most countries, especially in emerging markets.

Climate adaptation and resilience remain insufficient to cope with the potential economic damage associated with climate change. The United Nations Environment Programme estimates the gap in adaptation investments at about $210bn yearly by 2030 for developing economies alone (in 2024 prices). This is despite evidence that economic losses related to physical climate risks are rising, reaching $328bn (or 0.3 per cent of global GDP) in 2024 according to Swiss Re.

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