A transition across the world to a green economy could create 12 million new jobs but cost 2.4 million.

A World Economic Forum report, with McKinsey & Company, sees an evolving geoeconomic order, disrupted supply chains, and prospects of sustained inflation and higher costs of capital driving a renewed focus on security and resilience.

In total, the report sees an impact on 14.4 million jobs globally, with five new jobs created for each one phased out despite fears over higher energy costs and regulator, and inequality of transition, as green finance and technologies remain unevenly distributed both within and between countries.

While business leaders in more than 80 per cent of countries anticipate an overall economic boost, geopolitical fragmentation, economic uncertainty and deepening societal divides are challenging traditional climate-mitigation approaches and heightening the risk of uneven impacts on workers, consumers and businesses within and across countries.

The Making the Green Transition Work for People and for the Economy report warns that the green transition also risks creating new technology divides. Although many governments are scaling up industrial policy efforts in the energy and green sectors, access to technologies and capacity may not accrue evenly between countries.

In addition, one out of three businesses globally are concerned about job displacement in at least one major industry in their country. Even in countries where the green transition is expected to yield gains, significant labour market disruptions are anticipated. The research finds that higher levels of social protection and other long-term, socioeconomic foundations are associated with lower levels of concerns around the impact on workers and consumers.

Six archetypes of countries with similar risks and opportunities are analysed in the report, including key findings for the G20 and the ten most populous countries in the world.

• Inclusive green adopters (e.g. Australia, France, UK): Advanced economies with strong service sectors, greater access to financing and solid social systems. Early adopters of green technologies show concerns around higher regulatory burden and energy costs.
• Green developers (e.g. China, Germany, Japan, South Korea, US): Industrialised leaders in green technologies and yet with higher levels of per capita emissions. They benefit from deep financial markets but are grappling with uneven access to critical materials.
• Emerging green adopters (e.g. Italy, Turkey): Industrial and manufacturing economies with strong talent bases and moderate investment constraints. Businesses in these countries tend to be more pessimistic about the economic impact of the green transition.
• Growth economies (e.g. Brazil, India, Mexico, South Africa): Rapidly industrialising nations balancing green investments with energy affordability and access challenges. Financing constraints and nascent technology ecosystems challenge the scale-up of new green sectors.
• Fossil fuel exporters (e.g. Saudi Arabia): Economies where fossil fuels represent a large share of GDP and public revenues. Some have ambitious transformation plans, but face slow returns on investment and low access to green skills and technologies.
• Frontier economies (e.g. Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan): Low-income nations facing acute financing, skills and affordability barriers, requiring international support to align climate and development goals.

The report helps corporates identify and address socioeconomic risks and opportunities, outlining key considerations and guiding questions to support decision-makers in integrating these factors into climate strategy. It is not intended, however, as a comprehensive guide for developing corporate climate plans.

---