Hopes of an early COP30 climate deal eluded President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, but there remains a degree of optimism on the progress that has been made so far.

One of the main sticking points is the creation of a ‘roadmap’ that will lead to a phasing out of fossil fuels. Agreeing to the concept is one thing, but all maps need a scale, and that timescale here is a matter of dispute to say the least.

The dividing lines are not hard to guess, with the major oil producing nations against and those that are well on the road to transition in favour, such as the UK, EU and so on. The whole idea risks being seen as a Eurocentric plan, which is a bit of minor madness as someone needs to start the ball rolling, and it would be a tragedy if feelings of ‘white saviour complex’ scuppered a plan to save the world.

And then there is the whole elephant in the room: finance. In short, just much ‘rich’ but indebted countries will fund poorer countries to help them make the transition (this, of course, has another dimension of when will renewables genuinely create cheaper energy, at which point the issue moves to reparations rather than funding).

Both issues are on the clock anyway, as tipping points come and go, but irreversibility becomes more certain.

What was agreed was the hosting of COP31 with a draw declared in the battle between Australia/Pacific Islands versus Turkey and joint possession granted. Australia will preside and COP31 will take place in Turkey, after an initial COP summit hosted by the Pacific Islands.

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