The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has declared October 2024 the second-warmest October globally, at 1.65C above the pre-industrial level and was the 15th month in a 16-month period for which the global-average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.

This brings the global-average temperature for the past 12 months (November 2023 – October 2024) to an estimated 1.62C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

European temperatures were above average over almost all of the continent, and the average temperature over European land for October 2024 was 10.83C. Outside Europe, temperatures were most above average over northern Canada, and well-above average over the central and western US, northern Tibet, Japan and Australia.

Over water, the average sea surface temperature (SST) for October 2024 over 60°S–60°N was 20.68C, the second-highest value on record for the month, and only 0.10C below October 2023.

Samantha Burgess, deputy director of C3S, said: “After ten months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels according to the ERA5 dataset. This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29."

October 2024 also saw above-average precipitation across the Iberian Peninsula, France, northern Italy, Norway, northern Sweden, and east of the Black Sea. This heavy precipitation led to severe flash flooding in the region of Valencia, Spain, with over 200 fatalities whilst drier-than-average conditions were seen across most of the US, the central lowlands of Australia, much of southern Africa and Madagascar, and parts of Argentina and Chile.

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