Tony Blair Institute for Global Change has issued a paper, warning that the UK is currently in a “self-reinforcing high-cost, low-electrification trap”.

In short, the paper suggests that high electricity costs are suppressing demand, slowing the uptake of electric vehicles, heat pumps and industrial electrification, and this, in turn, means that the fixed costs of the system keep prices high. The result is a system that is too expensive to electrify and therefore remains dependent on fossil fuels and exposed to global shocks.

Calling for “pragmatic resilience” the paper calls for production at the Jackdaw and Rosebank oil and gas fields, an approach that prioritises least-cost system design, stimulates demand growth and enables market reform, and a credible framework for managing continued oil and gas demand through the transition, including stable investment conditions for the North Sea, and innovation within energy technology to enable the move away from fossil fuels.

Whilst accepting that electrification is the correct pathway, the Institute argues that this can only be achieved if electricity is abundant and affordable, and the current ‘doom loop; is broken.

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