New analysis by ECIU indicates that UK food prices are on track to be 50 per cent higher by November 2026 compared to levels at the start of the ‘cost-of-living crisis’ in mid-2021.

This would suggest that the amount of price growth seen in the nearly 20 years prior to the crisis would be achieved in just over 5 years.

The findings highlight how a combination of extreme weather driven by climate change, global supply disruptions, and continued exposure to volatile oil and gas markets have compounded pressures on the food system.

Chris Jaccarini, food and farming analyst at ECIU, said: “Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record with climate change combining with the El Nino effect kicking off this year. Three of England’s worst harvests on record have been in the past five years.”

Five climate-impacted foods (butter, milk, beef, chocolate and coffee) have been responsible for much of the continued pressure on food inflation, with the price of these foods rising over four times faster than other food and drink.

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