The Government is forecast to miss it’s revised Clean Power 2030 targets for offshore, onshore and solar PV by a combined 32GW according to new forecasts from Cornwall Insight.

The data, from Cornwall Insight’s GB Benchmark Power Curve, is projecting a shortfall in capacity, despite the Government already revising down its capacity targets in its Clean Power 2030 Action Plan, released in December.

Tom Musker, modelling manager, at Cornwall Insight said, “Renewables are set for substantial growth over the next five years, as the country strives to meet its clean power ambitions. However, despite promising progress, the gap between this growth and government targets underscores the urgent need to address both the operational and investment barriers slowing renewables growth. Grid connection delays, supply chain constraints, and uncertainty surrounding electricity market reforms are all creating a challenging environment for developers. Without swift and decisive action to resolve these issues, the UK risks falling significantly behind its clean power ambitions.”

With a 16GW shortfall, solar is set for the biggest underperformance, reaching 29GW compared to the 45-47GW target. Onshore wind is 10GW short of the 27-29GW goal and offshore wind just misses the target with a 6GW shortfall of the 43-50GW goal.

Further uncertainty stems from the lack of clarity around the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA), particularly the potential move away from national wholesale pricing. These reforms would require a comprehensive overhaul of regulations, contracts, and systems, with significant commercial implications for developers. Without clear guidance, developers are hesitant to invest, threatening the achievement of the UK’s clean power targets.

While the forecasts don’t show the 2030 target being met, the buildout would still be an impressive rise from current operational capacity. This progress will put the electricity sector on track to achieve net-zero emissions in the next decade, ahead of the net-zero economy-wide target of 2050.

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