The ballot papers haven’t all been counted yet, but Donald Trump has made a dramatic comeback to win the 2024 US election, and it is certain he will be in the White House.

Trying to predict what this means for the environment is a little bit of crystal ball gazing, but there are certainly some pointers.

And they are worth considering, for the effects of US policy to climate change will shape not just the world’s largest economy, but the world itself.

On a deep and social level. It endorses a more sceptical view of climate change, and Trump has a long record of supporting fossil fuel production, oil and gas in particular.

Trump has also alluded to pulling the plug on the Paris Agreement, and that might just be the start as it is possible he could also exit from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. On the eve of COP29, these ideas could severely curtail the expectations of the summit, especially on the thorny issue of climate finance, where Trump’s previous administration had cut budgets.

On an economic level, Trump has espoused a more isolationist view, and certainly will seek to introduce tariffs. Trump has already proposed a 100 per cent tariff on all imported vehicles, making electric vehicles less affordable. He is a critic of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, designed to build clean tech in the US, but her realpolitik might sway the day as it is employing thousands of Americans.

But as a world leading economy the US sets the global agenda, and here is where the effects of the new administration will be felt most.

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