In the report Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Technologies, Forecasts, IDTechEx assesses whether the window of opportunity for FCEVs for on-road vehicles has disappeared.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) continue to grow in model availability, sales numbers, and available charging infrastructure, fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) are stalled. Last year was the second successive year of declining sales for FCEV passenger cars, and fuel cell commercial vehicles also lagged behind BEVs despite their advantages such as quicker refuelling, longer range, and heavier maximum payloads.

Approximately 5,000 fuel-cell passenger cars were sold globally in 2024, representing a minute portion of the global passenger vehicle market. In the same year, BEV passenger car sales exceeded 11 million.

Running costs present a major issue, with IDTechEx's analysis in California showing the Toyota Mirai costs more than eight times as much per mile compared to a Tesla Model 3 and approximately three times as much as an internal combustion engine car. The year 2024 saw hydrogen prices at the pump soar as high as $36/kg at some stations, a 120 per cent increase from the average price in 2022.

So far, so bad for FCEVs. But, despite these issues, IDTechEx forecasts the FCEV market will increase more than sixty times between 2025 and 2045, with the largest demand in terms of volume coming from cars and heavy-duty trucks.

Honda returned after three years out of the FCEV market with the Honda CR-V Fuel Cell in July 2024, which also has plug-in electric-only driving capability. Furthermore, Hyundai stated it will release its next generation Initium FCEV in H1 2025, and BMW stated that it would commercialise a fuel cell car based on the BMW iX5 Hydrogen by 2028. Furthermore, new generations of fuel cells by Honda and Toyota have promised significant power density and durability increases at lower manufacturing costs.

In the commercial vehicles market, light commercial vehicles (LCVs) generally have their payload and range requirements well-served by BEVs, and LCVs will likely be restricted to regions with access to a reliable supply of low-cost hydrogen or areas where reliable grid connections are challenging.

The heavy-duty fuel cell trucks sector is different though. Long-haul heavy-duty trucks have the greatest payload requirements and the harshest duty cycles, which BEVs generally do not meet and IDTechEx expects fuel cell trucks to play a part in the longest, heaviest journeys, such that FCEVs will be approximately 20 per cent of zero-emissions heavy-duty truck sales by 2045.

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