The ongoing energy crisis has increased Europe’s reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG), with up to 80 per cent of imports from the US by 2028.

Moreover, Europe’s imports of Russian LNG reached a quarterly record in the first three months of 2026, and despite the Ukraine War, Russia remains the EU’s second-largest LNG supplier. EU countries spent €5.9bn on Russian pipeline gas and €6.7bn on Russian LNG in 2025.

The figures, from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) show a Europe that is deepening its dependence on liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US, with imports of US LNG more than tripled between 2021 and 2025, as countries reduced their reliance on Russian pipeline gas.

Given the ongoing disruptions to Qatari LNG exports, IEEFA forecasts that the US will overtake Norway to become Europe’s and the EU’s largest gas supplier in 2026 and could account for 80 per cent of EU LNG imports by 2028. On average, US LNG is the most expensive for European buyers.

“Europe’s shift from pipeline gas to LNG was meant to provide security of supply and diversification. Yet disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East and an overreliance on US LNG show that Europe’s plan has failed on both counts,” said Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst, Europe, at IEEFA. “LNG has become the Achilles’ heel of Europe's energy security strategy, leaving the continent exposed to high gas prices and to new forms of supply disruption.”

The ongoing energy crisis has spurred European efforts to reduce reliance on imported gas, including through the EU’s new AccelerateEU strategy, and IEEFA forecasts that Europe’s gas consumption could continue to decline this year and fall by 14 per cent between 2025 and 2030, meaning LNG demand could decrease by about 23 per cent over the same period.

“Europe may have no control over LNG supply disruptions, but it can boost energy efficiency and accelerate renewables and heat pump installations to reduce its import dependency,” said Jaller-Makarewicz.

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