IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2024 (WEO) predicts that, based on today’s policy settings, low-emissions sources are set to generate more than half of the world’s electricity before 2030 – and demand for all three fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – is projected to peak by the end of the decade.

“In the second half of this decade, the prospect of more ample – or even surplus – supplies of oil and natural gas, depending on how geopolitical tensions evolve, would move us into a very different energy world from the one we have experienced in recent years during the global energy crisis,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.

In this context, the WEO-2024 also shows that the contours of a new, more electrified energy system are coming into focus as global electricity demand soars. Electricity use has grown at twice the pace of overall energy demand over the last decade, with two-thirds of the global increase in electricity demand over the last ten years coming from China.

But, despite growing momentum behind clean energy transitions, the world is still a long way from a trajectory aligned with its net-zero goals. Based on today’s policy settings, global carbon dioxide emissions are set to peak imminently, but the absence of a sharp decline after that means the world is on course for a rise of 2.4 C in global average temperatures by the end of the century.

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