Sales are rising, sales are stalling, ZEV Mandate is working, ZEV Mandate is failing. It seems pretty every day there is a story and a contradiction.

So, let’s start with the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), who have sounded ‘alarm bells’ at the current policies on EV transition and called for urgent Government intervention to safeguard the sector and progress to net-zero.

That call comes as new analysis by the SMMT revealed that weak demand for EVs and the need to fulfil ever-rising sales quotas will cost the industry some £6bn in total costs in 2024, and even more next year.

The SMMT point out that the mandate was designed more than two years ago, and that the original assumptions on which it was founded have not yet been borne out. When the mandate was unveiled, industry anticipated that 457,000 electric cars would be registered in 2024, which should have accounted for 23.3 per cent of all new car registrations, however, the latest outlook shows 94,000 fewer cars will be registered, totalling just 363,000 with a market share of 18.7 per cent. The situation is even worse for vans with the outlook halved to just 20,000 units expected to be registered this year, a 5.7 per cent market share against a 2024 target of 10 per cent.

The result is that the mandated targets have given manufacturers no option but to subsidise sales, incentivising fleet, business and consumer EV sales through an estimated £4bn worth of discounts, and yet still will fall short.

But EV sales are growing, with data from New AutoMotive showing global sales of internal combustion engine vehicles have slumped from 78 per cent to 63 per cent, as EVs have almost doubled their market share and the UK’s sales increased 23 per cent on October last year, with more than 5,000 extra EVs.

The conclusion is that yes, sales are growing both in the UK and globally, but they are just not growing fast enough. Additional issues of a generally less optimistic global and domestic economic outlooks, interest rates and pricing of raw materials all heap more difficulties on the sector.

Meanwhile, at the London EV Show, Lilian Greenwood, the Minister for the Future of Roads at the Department for Transport underlined the importance of this Government’s adherence to net-zero, saying “so the transition to zero emission vehicles is not just necessary, it's essential and transformative. It will help us to drive economic growth. Now, we know that this transition is not without its challenges, and that we have work to do to ensure that we can make this a transition that delivers for industry and for consumers.”

Which leaves the door open for dialogue, and Jonathan Reynolds, the Business Secretary, has gone further to say a review will take place on the Mandate, but comes too late for Vauxhall’s Luton factory where owner Stellantis has announced plans to close its van-making putting over a thousand jobs at risk.

Manufacturing will now move to Ellesmere Port where Stellantis has invested £100m in readiness for electric van production. Conventional ICE vans will now made in France.

Stellantis chief executive Carlos Tavares had already made comments around the Mandate’s effect on both Luton and Ellesmere Port, and both Ford UK and Nissan have also voiced concern.

Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, commented: “We need an urgent review of the automotive market and the regulation intended to drive it. Not because we want to water down any commitments, but because delivery matters more than notional targets. The industry is hurting; profitability and viability are in jeopardy and jobs are on the line. When the world changes, so must we.”

---