Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4 per cent in 2026 driven by expansion of solar and wind power and the Iran conflict.

Research by the Global Carbon Project projects 38.2 billion tonnes of fossil carbon emissions this year with emissions from oil projected to decrease by 1.9 per cent, a likely short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict.

However, the report, published alongside a new paper in the journal Nature Climate Change, finds that clean energy growth is not yet fast enough for a durable decline in global fossil emissions. With emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) projected to increase slightly this year, total emissions are projected to be 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, up from 42.8 billion tonnes last year.

Furthermore, the remaining carbon budget (the amount of carbon that can be emitted before warming reaches 1.5C above pre-industrial levels) is now 150 billion tonnes, or equivalent to less than four years of emissions at the current rate.

“A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution.” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, director of the Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter, who led the study. “The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies. While renewables and electric vehicles are increasingly offsetting growth in energy demand, further acceleration is needed if global emissions are to peak and enter a sustained decline.”

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