It’s a quandary. You could make electricity cheaper and drive the adoption of heat pumps, or you could keep the levy and make the grid ready for heat pumps.

Evidence from the Continent has shown that as heat pump sales climb 11 per cent (figures from the European Heat Pump Association, or EHPA) in 12 European countries, with around 1.16 million sold.

After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz in February 2026, the European Commission published plans to encourage EU governments to lower electricity tax, to speed up the shift away from oil and gas. The EHPA notes these measures as the likely drivers of the growth in heat pump sales so far this year, which EHPA has long argued depend strongly on the electricity price.

Paul Kenny, EHPA director general commented: “Europe is ending its addiction to a toxic, costly drug from dodgy suppliers: gas. The sooner electricity becomes the most affordable solution, the quicker we’ll get clean. The fix? Dropping taxes on electricity and shifting them over to fossil fuels. The European Commission has made this clear, but now all EU governments must enact it, following in the footsteps of the Netherlands and Belgium.”

It is, in the end, a question of policy and longer-term planning.

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