The unprecedentedly wet winter, coming at the end of the wettest 18 months in the UK since records began in 1836, has had a significant impact on farmers’ cropping plans, with wet weather in the autumn preventing the drilling of winter crops, and ongoing wet weather in February and March preventing the drilling of spring crops.

The ECIU has projected a 19 per cent reduction in revenue compared to 2023 for winter wheat, winter barley, spring barley, oats and oilseed rape seeing a £1.12bn decline in revenue due to production losses of 26.5, 33.1 and 38 per cent respectively.

Using a re-run of the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board’s (AHDB) ‘early bird survey’ – which asks farmers what their cropping plans are – in March 2024 suggests a marked reduction in many key winter crops such as wheat and barley. Previous ECIU analysis has used this survey in conjunction with Defra yield data to estimate the potential impact of this on production volumes for these crops at harvest 2024.

Taken together, ECIU estimate that UK farmers stand to lose £889m on these crops in 2024 compared to 2023. Compared to the 2015-2023 average production, this increased to £1.18 billion at 2024 prices.

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