While the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies in recent years has made a major difference to the climate outlook, and it places the Paris goal within reach, the world is not yet on track to meet the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming well below 2C – let alone below the threshold of 1.5C that science has shown is crucial to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

IEA analysts have been following developments at COP28 closely. Pledges have been made in three key areas – by many countries on renewables and energy efficiency, and by a significant number of companies on methane and flaring. While these are positive steps forward in tackling the energy sector’s greenhouse gas emissions, even full delivery on the pledges by all the signatories to date would not be nearly enough to move the world onto a path to reaching international climate targets, in particular the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C.

The IEA delegation in Dubai have made clear what needs to be done to shift the world onto a 1.5C pathway. Based on data and analysis in the recent World Energy Outlook, the IEA has laid out five interdependent pillars for action between now and 2030:

Triple global renewable power capacity.

Double the rate of energy efficiency improvements.

Commitments by the fossil fuel industry, and oil and gas companies in particular, to align activities with the Paris Agreement, starting by cutting methane emissions from operations by 75 per cent.

Establish large-scale financing mechanisms to triple clean energy investment in emerging and developing economies.

Commit to measures that ensure an orderly decline in the use of fossil fuels, including an end to new approvals of unabated coal-fired power plants.

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