Estimated indirect economic consequences of climate induced sea level rise are much higher than previous studies imply.

A research team led by Delft University of Technology and including the PBL Dutch Environmental Assessment Agency, the European Institute on Economics and the Environment in Italy looked at the impact on 271 European regions until 2100.

The study suggests a GDP loss of 1.26 per cent (€871.8bn) for the whole of the EU and UK, with some coastal regions losing up to 21 per cent of GDP, revealing striking regional disparities.

Around 44 per cent of the EU or UK populations live within 50km from the coastline—at risk of coastal flooding and significant economic disruption as a result. Furthermore, these coastal regions contribute to nearly 40 per cent of the European Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and 75 per cent of Europe’s international trade volume is carried out through maritime routes.

The study, published in Nature, predicts that as the sea rises there will be winners and losers across economic activities that are affected asymmetrically. Some activities might consider strategic relocation away from the coast, while others may engage in restructuring, regional economic expansion or implement climate adaptation strategies (like seawalls).

Eventually, direct damage or loss can have far-reaching implications, from disrupting supply chains to impacting public services., but there are also indirect costs, from the social-economic costs of relocation to the need to pay for the restoration of infrastructure and provision of essential services, which may come at a cost to other public services (such as healthcare and education) and have non-trivial long-term effects on productivity.

---